What Lies ahead?
President Trump has walked into his second term with a complete disregard for the United States government, democracy, and the protections that stop the United States from falling to authoritarianism. This is no secret to anyone who has been paying attention because President Trump has sworn up and down to fulfill his promise of being a a dictator on day 1 and has committed his second term to fulfilling this promise. An incredible disregard for the rule of lawhas marked his second term, far surpassing anything in his first. In the last month alone, where the administration has gone about blundering through the federal government in '“attempts” to downsize and streamline, it became arguably the most corrupt in modern political history. Under the guise of streamlining and reforming the federal government, President Trump has allowed Elon Musk, an unelected bureaucrat and the richest man on the planet, to casually enter government agencies, alter rules, and fire civil servants without consideration for their implications or any understanding of who and what these people do. Despite eliminating ~250,000 federal employees, the administration outlays are running over budget rather than under, which leads one to understand that the goal is not to save money or trim federal expenditures but to break the federal government.
The administration isn't interested in streamlining, but rather in breaking down the functions of the federal government. The administration isn't really interested in downsizing for the sake of savings; the administration is interested in removing apolitical civil servants. The administration is not purging waste by shutting down agencies such as USAID. The administration has not found cases of extreme waste or gone about fixing them in legally sound manners. The administration is interested in centralizing power within the executive branch and reining control under the president's office. Where is the United States to go next? It has been less than a month into the second Trump presidency, and our nation as a free and fair democracy has slipped so far from grace. So much detriment to the rule of law has occurred in such a short window that it is likely a majority of Americans have not even noticed. What, then, lies ahead for the United States and the future of democracy?
Authoritarian rule and the dangers of ‘YES’ men”
The second Trump administration differs dramatically from the first, mainly due to staffing. A critically underrated component of the first Trump administration was a set of staffers, albeit questionable in their opinions, but at least experienced and understanding of the political system. These staffers were the ones who kept President Trump and his whims at bay during his first term. Staffers such as Prince Reibus, John Bolton, HR McMaster, Rex Tillerson, and many others halted and hindered the administration from taking its most insane positions and making them real. With decades of Washington knowledge, the staffers understood the reality of what can and cannot be done. During the second Trump administration, these staffers were nowhere to be found. Rather, almost everyone from the first term has gone on record against President Trump, leading to an almost complete staff turnover from his first term. In the years since Trump lost in 2020, he has surrounded himself with loyalists. His set of loyalists, or the ‘yes’ men, are not characterized by ideologies or beliefs other than loyalty to President Trump. The dangers of this become abundantly clear when considering the most powerful man on planet Earth is surrounded by people who, rather than pushing back and arguing for better outcomes or presenting him with alternatives, are simply nodding, their heads saying, “yes, sir, Mr. President.”
These very same ‘yes’ men, who are not all men, are the ones pushing the president's agenda and allowing wanton destruction of the federal government, illegal seizure of power, and centralization under the executive branch. The biggest culprit of this is none other than Elon Musk. Elon Musk, after a long journey from coming to the United States as an undocumented immigrant, becoming an Obama-era liberal ally, a climate change-fighting liberal during the first Trump administration, has now become a ketamine-damaged fool who is dismantling the functions of the federal government illegally. Elon Musk and his casual descent into authoritarian principles are the driving factors behind the chaos of the Trump administration. Elon Musk and his activities with the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E) are planting the seeds for centralization and coordinated authority under the executive. Executive orders have come out in flurries, strengthening DOGE and their reach, instructing them to downsize federal agencies, offer buyouts, and, upon the end of the federal hiring freeze, hire one position for every four terminated.
Similar issues arise with DOGE/Musk/Trump loyalists who have been placed in other positions of power, such as the 20-something-year-old staffers who have been in charge of the office of personnel management or accessing sensitive treasury data. I could sit here and talk about the dangers of giving a 20-something-year-old staffer access to the code that is the basis of the United States financial system, but I digress. I assume that anyone (myself as a 21 year old included) understands the danger of giving a recent college graduate access to the code that the entire U.S financial system is based on. I assume we can all see the danger of giving hundreds of millions of citizens private financial information to a 22 year old whether it be ‘view-only’ or true access—this is demonstrable oversight. These individuals are the exact individuals who have been placed in positions of power and play the ‘yes’-men role to both Musk and Trump. The ‘yes’ men follow around Musk and Trump, laughing at their jokes, supporting their whims, and creating a feedback/ideological reinforcement loop where whatever the individual says is the day's action item.
These same ‘yes’ men are the people who have allowed the president to think tariffs are an effective bargaining tool. These ‘yes’ men are the people who have allowed the weaponization and lawfare of the Department of Justice and other agencies to become a high priority for the administration. These men are the ones who have allowed the President of the United States to let an unelected private citizen take an unprecedented role with more power and influence than, arguably, any other person in the federal government. These ‘yes’ men are the individuals who are trying to pull the power of the purse away from Congress. These ‘yes’ men are the individuals who have attempted to undermine and dismantle the federal government from the inside. These ‘yes’ men are the people who are leading the United States into a competitive authoritarian system.
The future of the United States democracy, which has been backsliding for almost a decade since Trump took office the first time, appears to be on track for a competitive authoritarian state. This is a future where elections are held, and it is possible for the incumbent party to lose however, the scales are titled in favor of the incumbent party. In this future, the incumbent party, whether Democratic or Republican, will be able to weaponize federal government components to leverage themselves against the opposing party. In this system, it appears likely that whoever is in charge of the federal government will use weaponized institutions like the IRS, the DOJ, and other institutions of power and prominence to position themselves to stay in power unfairly. At the end of the line, what lies ahead is not a secret. The little birdies whispering in the president's ear have been very clear that they do not believe democracy has been a success. They believe that it is time to roll back free and fair democracy in favor of authoritarian rule in the name of “efficiency."
Prominent subscribers to this belief have made their agenda abundantly clear. Whether it be Silicon Valley elites like Peter Thiel or JD Vance, this belief lies in ending free and fair democracy as best we have maintained it. The ultimate goal of these individuals in dismantling the federal government is to have centralized authority in the executive branch. Although not exactly unitary executive theory, the blatant attacks on the separation of power and the independence of civil servants under the second Trump administration are extremely telling of the administration's goals. The administration is looking to take the power of the purse away from Congress, to take the power of impoundment for itself, and to minimize the power of the courts. Recently, JD Vance floated that the administration could simply ignore the courts. Elon Musk similarly took to the Internet to say that the judges halting the administration's illegal actions are rogue judges who must be removed. These judges are some of the last bastions of free and fair democracy. The federal court system appears to be the last stand of American democracy.
What happens after?
In a sense, the best-case scenario of a post-Trump world is that his coalition falls apart just as quickly as it was constructed. While this may be wishful thinking, I see this as a high possibility, given that the same was true for the Obama coalition. In 8 short years, the Obama coalition carried Democrats to one of the largest victories in decades a 60 seat majority in the Senate (albeit a brief 72 days of Supermajority status) and a huge majority in the house. Granted, by 2016, this same coalition had fallen apart, as the House flipped in the red blood bath of 2010, the filibuster-proof majority was arguably only in place for a month, if that, and despite some gains during the 2012 election, the Senate fell to Republican control by 2014. The immediate blowback from the American people and the ACA during the 2010 midterms cemented GOP control of the house for eight longer years. In simple electoral terms, the Obama coalition fell apart in nonelection years and fell by the wayside when Clinton became the nominee in 2016. This same coalition became unrecognizable by the 2018 midterm and the 2020 election, both of which mobilized massive “Anti-Trump” voters to the finish line. However, the Biden coalition, which vastly underperformed expectations, and the Trump coalition, which was vastly overperforming, proved to be a trend. Again, in 2022, where Democrats over-performed expectations, the party, buoyed by the new coalition of high-income, high-information voters, took away the wrong lessons and, evident in the 2024 election, fell short of securing the Presidency. The Trump coalition, which appears to benefit from high turnout elections and highly visible elections, falls apart when Trump himself is not at the top of the ticket. Take, for example, all the assorted races in low turnout, low visibility elections where Democrats DOMINATE. In these elections, Trump’s name is nowhere to be found on the ticket. This is precisely what gives me hope for the Democrat's punch back in 2026 and 2028, where the millions of low-propensity voters sit the midterm out while the high-propensity angry Democratic voters turn out in huge numbers.
As for what comes next for the future of American Democracy?
The sinking feeling is that in the coming months, Musk and Trump will continue to eviscerate the Federal government and dismantle it from within the inside. I predict that sooner or later, this will lead to more significant issues than just some funding here and there failing, but a grander overreach. Whether it be some issue with Social Security, dramatic cuts to Medicare, or SNAP, I presume the GOP trifecta will overstep its mandate, not solely in a singular dramatic fashion, but over a long, drawn-out few months until something significant enough to sink their approval occurs. The broader question of ‘what’ that moment looks like remains a mystery—what breaks through the flooded zone is often a mystery. It could be something as mundane as a widely politicized deportation effort. If a half-baked policy measure becomes a cultural phenomenon, and to that end, it would likely entail a massive pain to the American people.
In the aftermath of such an event, the best-case scenario is that the administration slows dismantling the Federal Government. The best-case scenario is the rate of destruction is delayed due to a swell of widespread pushback. At the current rate, it appears that this is a long ways away, the chaos of Trump 2.0 appears to be little more than a minor annoyance for the politically engaged. Despite the record number of civil servants, independent watchdogs, illegal terminations, and the blatant daylight corruption that makes Richard Nixon appear saintly, Trump 2.0 continues to power through. Should this popular pushback arrive, I imagine the combination of legal pushback from Judges and widespread protests, the administration could find itself in a quagmire. I assume that, should Democrats take the House of Representatives, it would be a nothing burger as the lack of legislative action from Republicans in Congress and the main driver of Trump 2.0, which is executive action, would mean very little. Investigations similar to those in 2019 would likely occur, but the extent of corruption is so blatant that investigations will only reveal the specifics of what was broken.
The aftermath of 2026/28 would mean a backsliding of democracy on an unprecedented scale. This new America would become a far more authoritarian system in which the freedoms and competition of a free and fair democracy are weaned even further. I fear such a system, and I pray that the fight against corruption and authoritarian rule leads to a new set of pro-democracy enhancements and a rejuvenation of our system.